Catastrophising is irresponsible.....

9th February 2019

The ODT (1st Feb 2019) recently reported that:

"More than $400million worth of roads and other assets owned by the Dunedin City Council are under threat from predicted sea level rise, underscoring the need for government help, Mayor Dave Cull says.

The figures for Dunedin were released as a major report by Local Government New Zealand (LGNZ) outlined the expected costs from sea level rise for councils across the country.

The report estimated $5.1billion of council assets across the country - including roads, pipes, buildings and other facilities - were at risk from 1m of sea level rise by 2100."

It goes on..... "even under a 1m sea level rise scenario $446 million worth of infrastructure would be left exposed."

However:

- Nasa predicts a range of 30 cm up to 1.3 m

- NIWA predicts a range of 40 cm up to 1.0 m

for Dunedin. The report then is based on the very upper end of those predictions.

Based on the recorded data between 1900 and 2016, and the trend (95% CI)  and  if CO2 continues to rise at current rates then the mean sealevel can be expected to increase by between 13 cm and 16 cm..... a far cry from 1 metre.

But it makes for a mighty catastrophe when going to ask governments for money and ratepayers for plenty too.

Thoroughly unhelpful

                                                             thanks to Malcolm Taylor for data.

Blog Archive

site powered by - Turboweb :: Simple Web Manager