eye2thelongrun

Brent Wheeler has used economic analysis to drive successful investment and governance in the public and private sector for the last 29 years. Typically with an ........ eye2thelongrun

Unusual US Equities Premium ? Or is it in NZ ?

3rd May 2019

From early on in our finance education students of CAPM are taught that the equities premium for the US is about 6%. In truth no one is 100% sure why. Bennett Stewart once wrote that the magic " 6 " was a bit like 22 over 7... or Pi. Just one of those numbers.

Aswath Damodaran - a grinding and inspired worker in this area - today published data showing the current (May2019) US premium to be around 5.62... up from 5.16 12 months ago. Damodaran uses the opyion method to estimate the premium which has the advantage of being forward looking and not just being a crude history re-run.

With the US riskfree rate down around 2.5 this makes the cost of capital some 8.12 (on average and for the S&P 500) in the US. Applied in an NZ context we might say the cost of capital is around 7.4 given the NZ rate for Rf.

Is the risk to be offset really that much lower in NZ ? If so why aren't we sprinting...?

Intoxicated and Enchanted by Words

8th April 2019

Gina Barreca explains the joy of a favourite word in this wonderful article in the Otago Daily Times

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Why Fair Seems Seductive

10th February 2019

The Tax System Explained in Beer

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Catastrophising is irresponsible.....

9th February 2019

The ODT (1st Feb 2019) recently reported that:

"More than $400million worth of roads and other assets owned by the Dunedin City Council are under threat from predicted sea level rise, underscoring the need for government help, Mayor Dave Cull says.

The figures for Dunedin were released as a major report by Local Government New Zealand (LGNZ) outlined the expected costs from sea level rise for councils across the country.

The report estimated $5.1billion of council assets across the country - including roads, pipes, buildings and other facilities - were at risk from 1m of sea level rise by 2100."

It goes on..... "even under a 1m sea level rise scenario $446 million worth of infrastructure would be left exposed."

However:

- Nasa predicts a range of 30 cm up to 1.3 m

- NIWA predicts a range of 40 cm up to 1.0 m

for Dunedin. The report then is based on the very upper end of those predictions.

Based on the recorded data between 1900 and 2016, and the trend (95% CI)  and  if CO2 continues to rise at current rates then the mean sealevel can be expected to increase by between 13 cm and 16 cm..... a far cry from 1 metre.

But it makes for a mighty catastrophe when going to ask governments for money and ratepayers for plenty too.

Thoroughly unhelpful

                                                             thanks to Malcolm Taylor for data.

Multitasking in Slow Motion - Tim Harford

29th January 2019

Tim Harford - A Powerful Way to Unlease your Natural Creativity. A recent Ted Talk by Tim Harford who shares how innovators like Einstein, Darwin, Twyla Tharp and Michael Crichton found their inspiration and productivity through cross-training their minds.

Watch here:

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