eye2thelongrun

Brent Wheeler has used economic analysis to drive successful investment and governance in the public and private sector for the last 29 years. Typically with an ........ eye2thelongrun

Catastrophising is irresponsible.....

9th February 2019

The ODT (1st Feb 2019) recently reported that:

"More than $400million worth of roads and other assets owned by the Dunedin City Council are under threat from predicted sea level rise, underscoring the need for government help, Mayor Dave Cull says.

The figures for Dunedin were released as a major report by Local Government New Zealand (LGNZ) outlined the expected costs from sea level rise for councils across the country.

The report estimated $5.1billion of council assets across the country - including roads, pipes, buildings and other facilities - were at risk from 1m of sea level rise by 2100."

It goes on..... "even under a 1m sea level rise scenario $446 million worth of infrastructure would be left exposed."

However:

- Nasa predicts a range of 30 cm up to 1.3 m

- NIWA predicts a range of 40 cm up to 1.0 m

for Dunedin. The report then is based on the very upper end of those predictions.

Based on the recorded data between 1900 and 2016, and the trend (95% CI) and if CO2 continues to rise at current rates then the mean sealevel can be expected to increase by between 13 cm and 16 cm..... a far cry from 1 metre.

But it makes for a mighty catastrophe when going to ask governments for money and ratepayers for plenty too.

Thoroughly unhelpful

thanks to Malcolm Taylor for data.

Multitasking in Slow Motion - Tim Harford

29th January 2019

Tim Harford - A Powerful Way to Unlease your Natural Creativity. A recent Ted Talk by Tim Harford who shares how innovators like Einstein, Darwin, Twyla Tharp and Michael Crichton found their inspiration and productivity through cross-training their minds.

Watch here:

The Global Risks Report 2019 - 14th edition

21st January 2019

Is the world sleepwalking into a crisis? Global risks are intensifying but the collective will to tackle them appears to be lacking. Instead, divisions are hardening.

Read the full report here: The Global Risks Report 2019 - 14th Edition

Longer Term Equities for 2019... top 10 by one view

20th January 2019

Top Shares by Conventional Analysis 2019

Stock picking is not regular fare of BWG. Thinking about value and pricing is however as is trading. Diversification of methods also has value. Here are some currently touted stock recommendations – from Motley Fool – one of the most plausible at this type of selection) to ponder.

In each case there is a rationale based on economic drivers and an attractive price based on current trading.

Ranked from Least to Most Desirable as Buys

Thomas Sowell - a handful of quotes

11th November 2018

"I never cease to be amazed at how often people throw around the lofty phrase 'social justice' without the slightest effort to define it. It cannot be defined because it is an attitude masquerading as a principle. "

“There was a time when we honored those who created the prosperity and the freedom that we enjoy. Today we honor the complainers and sue the creators. Perhaps that is inevitable in an era when we no longer count our blessings, but instead count all our unfulfilled wishes.”

"Socialism in general has a record of failure so blatant that only an intellectual could ignore or evade it.

It takes considerable knowledge just to realize the extent of your own ignorance.

Much of the social history of the Western world, over the past three decades, has been a history of replacing what worked with what sounded good."

^{Thomas Sowell is an American economist and social theorist who is currently Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University.}

^{In 1968, he earned his doctorate in economics from the University of Chicago.}

^{Sowell has served on the faculties of several universities, including Cornell University and University of California, Los Angeles. He has also worked for think tanks such as the Urban Institute. Since 1980, he has worked at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. He writes from a libertarian conservative perspective, advocating supply-side economics. Sowell has written more than thirty books (a number of which have been reprinted in revised editions), and his work has been widely anthologized. He is a National Humanities Medal recipient for innovative scholarship which incorporated history, economics and political science.}